When the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015 under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), it marked a major turning point in global climate governance. For the first time, climate action was anchored in a universal yet differentiated mechanism, grounded in national realities: Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The Agreement stipulates that each Party shall prepare, communicate, and maintain successive contributions that represent a progression beyond the previous one and reflect the highest possible level of ambition [1].
Contrary to a still widespread perception, NDCs were never designed as fixed commitments. They constitute an evolving process, structured around a five-year revision cycle and the Global Stocktake mechanism, which assesses collective progress toward long-term climate goals [2]. This architecture acknowledges a fundamental reality: climate science advances, impacts intensify, and national capacities evolve, making the regular updating of climate policies indispensable.
The first generation of contributions, commonly referred to as NDC 1, played a catalytic role. In many countries, particularly in the developing world, the primary objective was to institutionalize climate action, establish governance frameworks, and consolidate data that had previously been fragmented. These initial NDCs were generally cautious, sometimes conditional on international support, and strongly constrained by economic and social realities. The UNFCCC explicitly recognizes this incremental nature, emphasizing that early contributions were intended above all to trigger a dynamic of action [3].
Algeria clearly illustrates this initial phase. Its first NDC, submitted in 2015, committed the country to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 7% by 2030 without external support, and up to 22% conditional on international financial and technological assistance [4]. This contribution reflected both the country’s structural dependence on hydrocarbons and its willingness to integrate climate considerations into national public policies. It helped initiate intersectoral dialogue and lay the foundations for climate governance, without yet constituting a pathway for deep structural transformation.
It is precisely to overcome these limitations that the progression of NDCs lies at the heart of the Paris Agreement. The second generation of contributions, or NDC 2, corresponds to a phase of learning and consolidation. At this stage, countries are expected to draw lessons from initial implementation, improve data quality, strengthen measurement, reporting, and verification systems, and more closely integrate climate commitments into sectoral policies. The UNFCCC stresses that updated NDCs should not only raise the level of ambition but also enhance the clarity, transparency, and understanding of commitments [5].
In the MENA region, this stage is particularly strategic. Climate vulnerabilities, water stress, rising temperatures, desertification, and coastal risks, require an integrated approach linking climate, energy, water, and development. Several countries in the region have used their second-generation NDCs to strengthen targets for renewable energy, energy efficiency, and adaptation, while improving coherence between climate policies and national development strategies [6].
For Algeria, a strengthened second-generation NDC represents a major strategic opportunity. Climate projections point to worsening droughts and increased pressure on water resources, with direct impacts on agriculture, cities, and food security [7]. In this context, the NDC can become a genuine national planning tool, articulating energy transition, water efficiency, territorial adaptation, and economic diversification. It also sends a critical signal for access to international climate finance, which increasingly prioritizes progressive and credible policy frameworks.
The third generation of contributions, often referred to as NDC 3, corresponds to a phase of political maturity. Recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that current commitments, even if fully implemented, remain insufficient to keep warming well below 2°C, let alone 1.5°C [8]. The first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement confirms the existence of a significant ambition gap between current national trajectories and collective objectives [2].
An NDC 3 therefore goes beyond a purely quantitative increase in emission reduction targets. It is characterized by stronger integration of adaptation, explicit alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals, consideration of social and territorial dimensions, and clearer articulation of financial needs and implementation conditions. It transforms climate commitment into a lever for structural transformation rather than an external constraint.
At the regional level, trajectories remain uneven. Some MENA countries have already undertaken ambitious revisions of their NDCs, integrating clear energy strategies and structured adaptation frameworks. Others, including Algeria, still have significant potential to raise ambition, reflecting differences in institutional capacity and strategic priorities [9].
The urgency of strengthening NDCs is no longer abstract. Climate change impacts are already manifesting through increased frequency and intensity of extreme events, growing pressure on natural resources, and rising economic risks. In this context, maintaining outdated contributions amounts to planning the future on the basis of obsolete scenarios. Conversely, the continuous progression of NDCs makes it possible to anticipate risks, reduce the costs of inaction, and seize the opportunities offered by the climate transition.
Ultimately, the transition from NDC 1 to NDC 2 and then to NDC 3 embodies the very essence of the climate governance model established by the UNFCCC. It is neither an admission of failure nor a bureaucratic requirement, but a mechanism of collective learning and rising ambition. For Algeria and the MENA region as a whole, this dynamic offers a unique strategic opportunity to transform climate urgency into a sustainable development project grounded in resilience, resource sovereignty, and a long-term vision tailored to regional realities.
References
[1] UNFCCC (2015). Paris Agreement.Convention-cadre des Nations unies sur les changements climatiques. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement
[2] UNFCCC (2023). Global Stocktake – Synthesis Report.First Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement (COP28). https://unfccc.int/topics/global-stocktake
[3] UNFCCC (2016). Synthesis Report on the Aggregate Effect of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions.UNFCCC Secretariat. https://unfccc.int/documents/58921
[4] Gouvernement algérien (2015). Contribution déterminée au niveau national de l’Algérie (INDC/NDC).Soumise à l’UNFCCC.https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Algeria%20First/Algeria-INDC.pdf
[5] UNFCCC (2021). Guidance on Updating and Enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions.Decision 1/CMA.3. https://unfccc.int/documents/460951
[6] UNDP (2022). Climate Promise: NDC Enhancement in the Arab States.United Nations Development Programme. https://climatepromise.undp.org/research-and-reports/arab-states-ndc-enhancement
[7] GIEC / IPCC (2022). Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/
[8] GIEC / IPCC (2023). AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
[9] Climate Transparency (2023). Climate Governance and NDCs in the MENA Region.
Climate Transparency Initiative. https://www.climate-transparency.org/resources
