Abstract
Water scarcity is increasingly recognized as one of the most critical systemic risks of the 21st century. Nowhere is this challenge more evident than in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the most water-stressed region in the world. In response to structural freshwater scarcity, several Gulf countries have developed extensive desalination infrastructures that now supply the majority of their drinking water. While desalination has enabled rapid urban and economic development in extremely arid environments, it has also introduced new strategic vulnerabilities by linking water security to energy infrastructure, maritime transport routes and geopolitical stability.
This article analyzes the evolving geopolitics of water security in the MENA region by examining global patterns of water stress, the structural dependence of Gulf countries on desalination technologies, and the strategic importance of maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. The study highlights how modern water systems are increasingly embedded within the water–energy–food nexus and how disruptions to energy supply or maritime security could rapidly compromise water availability in desalination-dependent societies.
Beyond the technological dimension, the article explores the emerging role of water infrastructure as a strategic asset in modern conflicts. In regions characterized by extreme water scarcity, dams, pipelines and desalination plants represent critical infrastructure whose disruption could have immediate humanitarian and geopolitical consequences.
Finally, the paper discusses strategic solutions to enhance water security, including artificial aquifer recharge systems, regional water interconnections and diversification of water resources. The analysis argues that water security must now be understood not only as an environmental or technological challenge but as a central geopolitical issue shaping regional stability in the 21st century. In this emerging context, water may become as strategically important as oil once was, underscoring the urgent need to protect critical water infrastructure and strengthen international cooperation in water governance.
Water in the Age of Geopolitical Competition
Water security is increasingly recognized as one of the defining challenges of the 21st century. Once considered primarily an environmental or technical issue, water scarcity now intersects with economic development, food security, energy infrastructure and geopolitical stability [1,2].
Recent global assessments indicate that approximately one quarter of the global population lives under extremely high water stress, meaning that more than 80 % of available freshwater resources are withdrawn each year [1]. The situation is particularly critical in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where water scarcity is structural rather than temporary [2].
Climate change is expected to intensify these pressures. Rising temperatures and declining precipitation will reduce groundwater recharge and increase evaporation, particularly in arid regions [3]. In response, several countries have turned to technological solutions such as seawater desalination [4].
However, while desalination addresses the physical scarcity of water, it also introduces new strategic vulnerabilities linked to energy infrastructure and geopolitical stability [5].
Global Geography of Water Stress
Water scarcity is unevenly distributed across the world. Hydrological assessments consistently show that the highest levels of water stress occur in the Middle East, North Africa and parts of South Asia [1].
Figure 1 illustrates the concentration of extreme water scarcity in the MENA region, where 83 % of the population lives under extremely high water stress [1].
This situation results from a combination of structural factors including low precipitation, high evaporation rates and growing water demand.
This situation results from several structural factors including:
- low precipitation
- high evaporation rates
- rapid population growth
- increasing agricultural water demand [4].
Water Stress, Desalination Dependency and the Strait of Hormuz
The Middle East and North Africa region represents the most severe case of structural water scarcity in the world. According to global hydrological assessments, most countries in the region withdraw more than 80 % of their available renewable freshwater resources annually, placing them among the most water-stressed nations on the planet [1].
Figure 1 illustrates the global distribution of water stress and highlights the concentration of extreme water scarcity across the Middle East and North Africa. Countries such as Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia rank among the most water-stressed states globally due to extremely limited renewable water resources and rapidly increasing demand.
In response to this structural scarcity, several Gulf countries have developed large-scale desalination systems to ensure reliable water supply for urban populations. Today, desalination represents the primary source of drinking water in several states. For instance, desalinated water provides approximately 90 % of Kuwait’s drinking water, 86 % in Oman and nearly 70 % in Saudi Arabia [6].
The Gulf region now hosts nearly half of the world’s desalination capacity, making it the global epicenter of industrial freshwater production [6]. This technological infrastructure has enabled the development of major urban centers such as Riyadh, Dubai, Doha and Kuwait City in environments where natural freshwater resources are almost nonexistent.
However, this technological solution has also created a new form of strategic dependency. Desalination plants require large amounts of energy and are typically located along coastal areas where seawater can be easily accessed. As a result, water supply systems in the Gulf have become deeply interconnected with energy infrastructure and maritime transport routes.
This interdependence forms what is commonly referred to as the water–energy nexus, in which water production depends directly on energy supply systems [7].
One of the most critical geopolitical dimensions of this nexus is the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow maritime corridor connects the Persian Gulf to global shipping routes and represents one of the most important chokepoints in international trade. Approximately 20 % of global oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a vital corridor for global energy markets [10].
Because desalination plants rely heavily on electricity generated from fossil fuels and imported industrial components, disruptions to maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz could indirectly affect water production across the Gulf region.
In a scenario of geopolitical escalation, maritime blockades, cyber-attacks or military strikes targeting energy infrastructure could compromise desalination operations. Since desalination plants supply the majority of drinking water in several Gulf countries, such disruptions could rapidly create severe water shortages in major urban areas.
This situation illustrates a profound transformation in the geopolitics of water. In contrast to traditional water systems based on rivers or aquifers, modern water supply systems in the Gulf depend on industrial infrastructure that is highly centralized and strategically exposed.
As a result, desalination plants, pipelines and pumping stations have become critical national infrastructure whose protection is increasingly integrated into national security strategies.
Strategic Solutions for Water Security: Resilience and Infrastructure Protection
Given the vulnerabilities associated with desalination dependency, strengthening water security in the Middle East requires a set of strategic measures designed to increase the resilience of water systems.
Strategic Water Storage Systems
One of the most effective solutions involves the development of strategic water storage systems capable of supplying cities in the event of disruptions to desalination plants.
Traditional water supply systems rely on reservoirs and natural aquifers as buffer mechanisms. However, desalination-dependent systems often lack large storage capacities. As a result, many Gulf cities would face severe water shortages within days if desalination plants were to stop operating.
To address this vulnerability, several countries have begun developing Artificial Aquifer Recharge (AAR) systems. In these projects, desalinated water is injected into underground aquifers to create strategic reserves that can be used during emergencies.
The United Arab Emirates, for example, has developed large underground storage systems capable of storing hundreds of millions of cubic meters of desalinated water [12]. These underground reserves function as strategic water buffers that can supply urban populations for several weeks if desalination plants are disrupted. Such systems represent an important step toward strengthening the resilience of water supply infrastructure.
Regional Water Interconnections
Another strategic approach involves the development of regional water interconnection networks. Just as electricity grids allow countries to exchange power during peak demand or system failures, interconnected water systems could allow neighboring states to provide emergency water supplies when one country’s infrastructure is compromised.
Regional water interconnections could enable:
- emergency water transfers between countries
- shared desalination capacity
- greater flexibility in water distribution
- improved regional water security.
While such systems are still limited in the Middle East, they already exist in other regions of the world. Several European countries operate transboundary water networks that allow cooperative water management and emergency support during infrastructure failures [13].
Developing similar networks in the Middle East could significantly enhance regional resilience and reduce the risks associated with centralized desalination systems.
Diversification of Water Sources
Reducing dependence on desalination also requires diversification of water resources. Several complementary strategies can strengthen long-term water security, including:
- large-scale wastewater reuse
- improved groundwater management
- rainwater harvesting
- water demand management and efficiency.
Wastewater reuse is particularly promising in arid regions, where treated wastewater can be used for agricultural irrigation and industrial applications. This approach reduces pressure on freshwater resources and improves overall water system resilience [14].
Water as a Strategic Weapon in Modern Conflicts
Throughout history, control over natural resources has played a decisive role in shaping geopolitical conflicts. During the 20th century, oil emerged as the dominant strategic resource, driving economic development and influencing global power dynamics. In the 21st century, however, growing water scarcity suggests that freshwater resources may become an equally critical geopolitical factor.
In regions affected by structural water scarcity, water infrastructure is increasingly becoming a strategic asset that can influence political stability and military strategy. Rivers, dams, pipelines and desalination plants represent critical infrastructure whose disruption could have immediate humanitarian and economic consequences.
The Middle East offers several examples illustrating how water resources can become entangled with geopolitical tensions. Transboundary rivers such as the Tigris, Euphrates and Jordan have long been at the center of regional political negotiations and disputes over water allocation. Control over upstream dams and reservoirs can influence water availability downstream, giving upstream states significant geopolitical leverage.
Similarly, water infrastructure has increasingly been targeted or strategically used during conflicts. In recent years, armed groups and military actors have repeatedly targeted dams, pumping stations and water treatment plants in conflict zones. Such actions demonstrate how water systems can be weaponized to exert pressure on civilian populations and governments.
In the Gulf region, the strategic importance of desalination plants adds a new dimension to this phenomenon. Unlike traditional water management systems based on rivers or groundwater, Gulf cities depend heavily on centralized desalination infrastructure located along coastal areas. This concentration creates potential vulnerabilities in the event of military escalation or geopolitical confrontation.
If desalination facilities were disrupted, major cities could experience severe water shortages within a short period of time. Because these systems often operate with limited freshwater storage capacity, even temporary disruptions could quickly affect millions of people.
In this context, water infrastructure has become a critical component of national security strategies. Protecting desalination plants, pipelines and pumping stations is now considered as essential as protecting energy infrastructure.
The increasing vulnerability of water systems highlights the broader geopolitical implications of water scarcity. Water shortages can destabilize economies, trigger migration and exacerbate social tensions. As a result, water scarcity often acts as a risk multiplier, amplifying existing political and economic conflicts.
However, water resources can also serve as a catalyst for cooperation rather than conflict. Several international river basins are managed through cooperative agreements that promote shared water governance and conflict prevention. Strengthening such cooperative frameworks will be essential in addressing future water security challenges.
Ultimately, the geopolitics of water in the 21st century will likely be shaped by a delicate balance between competition and cooperation. In an increasingly water-scarce world, ensuring the protection of critical water infrastructure and promoting transboundary water governance will be key to maintaining regional stability.
The emerging reality is that water is no longer simply an environmental resource. In many regions of the world, it is becoming a strategic instrument of power capable of shaping geopolitical dynamics and influencing the balance of security between states.
Future Water Stress and Climate Change
Climate change and population growth are expected to intensify water scarcity significantly in the coming decades.
Projections suggest that more than 5 billion people could live under water stress conditions by 2050 [3]. The regions expected to be most affected include the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia.
Middle East vs North Africa: Two Water Security Models
Although both regions face severe water scarcity, their strategies differ.
Middle East: Gulf countries rely primarily on technological solutions such as large-scale desalination plants.
North Africa: Countries such as Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia rely more on diversified water management strategies including dams, groundwater extraction and irrigation systems.
However, climate change may push North African countries toward greater reliance on desalination in the future.
The Water-Energy-Food Nexus
Water security is closely interconnected with energy systems and food production. Agriculture accounts for approximately 70 % of global freshwater withdrawals, making water availability a key determinant of food security [11].
Energy is required for water extraction, treatment and desalination, while water resources are also essential for energy production processes.
Geostrategic Solutions for Water Security
Given the vulnerabilities associated with desalination dependency, several strategic solutions can enhance water security in the region.
Strategic Water Storage
One key strategy involves the creation of large underground water reserves through artificial aquifer recharge systems. In this approach, desalinated water is injected into underground aquifers, creating strategic reserves that can supply cities for several weeks in case desalination plants stop operating [12].
Regional Water Interconnections
Another important solution involves regional water interconnection networks. Such systems would allow neighboring countries to supply water to each other during emergencies, improving regional resilience. Similar infrastructure already exists in Europe for energy and water management [13].
Diversification of Water Resources
Reducing dependence on desalination requires diversification through wastewater reuse, improved groundwater management and rainwater harvesting [14].
Future Geopolitical Risks
Water scarcity may increasingly act as a risk multiplier, exacerbating existing geopolitical tensions [15]. In regions where water supply depends heavily on centralized infrastructure such as desalination plants, these facilities may become strategic targets during conflicts.
Conclusion: Water Security as the Strategic Resource of the 21st Century
Water is rapidly emerging as one of the most critical strategic resources of the 21st century. In regions such as the Middle East and North Africa, where natural freshwater availability is extremely limited, water security is no longer solely a matter of environmental management or technological innovation. It has become a central component of national security, geopolitical stability and economic resilience.
The increasing dependence of Gulf countries on desalination infrastructure illustrates a profound transformation in the nature of water systems. In these societies, drinking water is no longer provided primarily by natural hydrological cycles but by energy-intensive industrial infrastructure located along highly sensitive coastal zones.
This transformation creates a new strategic vulnerability. Unlike traditional water systems based on rivers, aquifers or reservoirs, desalination-dependent systems are highly centralized and dependent on energy supply chains, maritime trade routes and geopolitical stability. In such a configuration, disruptions to energy infrastructure, cyber-attacks, maritime blockades or military strikes could rapidly compromise water supply for millions of people.
Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East demonstrate that critical infrastructure is increasingly exposed to strategic competition. In this context, water infrastructure—including desalination plants, pipelines and storage facilities—must now be considered strategic assets comparable to energy infrastructure.
Historically, geopolitical conflicts in the region have been largely shaped by the control of oil resources. However, the growing scarcity of freshwater suggests that water may become an even more strategic resource than oil in the coming decades.
Oil fuels economies, but water sustains life itself. Without secure access to water, urban systems collapse, agricultural production declines and social stability deteriorates. For this reason, water scarcity can act as a powerful risk multiplier, amplifying existing political and economic tensions.
Looking toward the future, protecting water infrastructure must therefore become a priority of national and regional security strategies. This requires a comprehensive approach including:
- diversification of water resources
- development of strategic water reserves
- protection of critical desalination infrastructure
- regional cooperation in water management.
Ultimately, water security will shape the geopolitical landscape of the 21st century. In an increasingly water-stressed world, access to reliable freshwater resources may determine not only economic development but also political stability and peace.
In this emerging geopolitical reality, water is no longer simply a natural resource. It has become a strategic instrument of power—one that must be protected with the same urgency and strategic vision once reserved for oil and energy resources.
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