Water security has become a central determinant of geopolitical stability and sustainable development, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. Increasing water demand, combined with climate change and fragmented governance of shared water resources, is intensifying tensions between states. This article analyzes transboundary water conflicts through several emblematic cases and highlights the critical role of cooperative governance, with a particular focus on the North Western Sahara Aquifer System (NWSAS).
This study emphasizes that scientific transparency, institutional coordination, and regional cooperation are key to preventing water-related conflicts and ensuring long-term water security.
Water as a Strategic Security Issue
Water is no longer merely an environmental or economic resource; it has become a strategic component of international security. Rapid population growth, agricultural intensification, and urban expansion have significantly increased pressure on freshwater resources already stressed by climate change [1][1][1]. Transboundary water systems, in particular, represent zones of heightened vulnerability where inadequate governance can transform scarcity into a source of political instability.
Recent assessments indicate that more than 40% of the global population currently lives in water-stressed basins, with especially acute conditions in the Mediterranean and Middle Eastern regions [2].
Transboundary Water Conflicts: Dynamics and Risk Amplifiers
Contrary to popular narratives of “water wars,” water-related conflicts are rarely direct. Instead, water acts as a risk multiplier, exacerbating pre-existing political, territorial, and socio-economic tensions [3].
Middle East and North Africa
The Nile Basin exemplifies this dynamic. Ethiopia views the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam as essential for national development and energy security, while Egypt perceives it as a direct threat to its water security, as the Nile supplies approximately 95% of its freshwater resources [4].
Similarly, the Tigris–Euphrates basin is characterized by upstream hydro-hegemony, where large-scale hydraulic projects in Turkey significantly influence downstream water availability in Syria and Iraq [5].
Asia and the Horn of Africa
In Asia, tensions surrounding the Brahmaputra and the Helmand rivers highlight the consequences of limited data sharing and weak institutional coordination, particularly during prolonged drought periods [6]. In Somalia, extreme water scarcity contributes to social fragility, population displacement, and internal conflicts, even when water is not the sole causal factor [7]
The North Western Sahara Aquifer System (NWSAS): A Critical Case
The North Western Sahara Aquifer System (NWSAS) is one of the world’s largest fossil groundwater reservoirs, shared by Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia. Its non-renewable nature makes it especially sensitive to overexploitation.
Scientific studies reveal chronic imbalance between abstraction and recharge, with withdrawals locally exceeding 2.5 billion m³ per year [8]. The resulting impacts include:
- significant declines in piezometric levels,
- progressive salinization,
- increased energy costs for deep pumping,
- socio-economic stress on oasis-based agricultural systems [9].
Global water risk indices applied to the NWSAS indicate a high risk level for Libya and moderate risk levels for Algeria and Tunisia, underscoring the latent potential for future tensions in the absence of strengthened governance mechanisms [10].
Water Governance as a Conflict-Prevention Tool
The scientific literature consistently demonstrates that water conflicts primarily reflect governance failures rather than physical scarcity alone [11]. International experience shows that cooperation is more likely when several conditions are met:
- transparent and shared hydrological data systems,
- legally binding agreements with dispute-resolution mechanisms,
- basin- or aquifer-level institutions integrating scientific expertise and political dialogue,
- science-based water diplomacy grounded in shared indicators and scenarios [12].
Conclusion
In an era of increasing water scarcity, water security has become a cornerstone of regional stability, food security, and sustainable development. Water-related conflicts are not inevitable; they can be mitigated through cooperative governance frameworks rooted in science, transparency, and equity. In Mediterranean and Saharan regions, transforming water from a source of tension into a driver of cooperation represents one of the most critical strategic challenges of the twenty-first century.
References
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