According to the 2024 energy balance report published by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) in Jordan, renewable sources supplied a record 26.9% of the nation’s 23.3 TWh electricity consumption. However, the underlying data reveals a more urgent story. Electricity consumption from 2020 to 2024 was 18.4, 19.3, 20.6, 21.8, and 23.3 TWh respectively as shown in the figure below, resulting in a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.07%—a pace expected to accelerate just as the country aims for a 31% renewable share by 2030. Achieving this target will require strategic action.
Among the possible scenarios, one decisive approach is to supercharge the growth of solar PV on local distribution grids, thereby transforming a technical goal into a catalyst for national energy independence and job creation.
Surging Demand and the Rising Renewable Target
Several interconnected factors are driving a significant increase in electricity demand, which in turn amplifies the challenge of meeting renewable energy targets.
- Population and Economic Growth: A growing population and a rising GDP directly increase base electricity consumption for homes, businesses, and industry.
- Climate Adaptation: Intensifying heat waves are drastically increasing cooling needs. According to recent UN reports, the number of days exceeding 40°C (104°F) is projected to reach 100 per year in the near future. This not only drives the installation of more—and larger—air conditioning units (as older, smaller units become insufficient in extreme heat) but also increases electricity demand for critical water pumping.
- Transport Energy Transition: The accelerating adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is adding a substantial new load to the grid.
- Fuel Substitution: The strategic electrification of heating to reduce costs and emissions is further shifting energy demand onto the electrical grid.
This confluence of drivers means the absolute volume of renewable energy required to meet the 31% target by 2030 is a moving target, rising faster than baseline projections. Simply maintaining the current pace of renewable additions will result in a strategic shortfall.
The Transmission Grid: Foundation Built, Capacity Unleashed
Large-scale projects form the current backbone of Jordan’s renewables success, contributing roughly two-thirds of clean electricity generation. Recent policy dismantling of key barriers has set the stage for the next wave of utility-scale development. The September 2024 removal of the 1MW project cap unlocked the transmission grid for larger commercial and industrial players.
This regulatory shift is now translating into gigawatts in the pipeline: a 200MW MEMR tender in May 2025 and a landmark 100MW industrial sector solar PV agreement for community solar PV signed in December 2025. Government tenders for wind and solar-with-storage projects are imminent.
The Critical Frontier: Why Distribution Grids Hold the Key to 2030
The author’s analysis points to distributed generation as the decisive variable for reaching 31%, based on the following points:
Current Capacity: Distribution grids host 1,196 MW of solar PV (per 2024 electricity distribution companies reports), generating approximately one-third of 2024’s renewable electricity.
Current Growth Rate: Annual additions are steady at ~100 MW.
Required Growth Rate: To compensate for rising demand and hit the target, the author is expecting annual installations to jump 20-80%, to between 120 MW and 180 MW annually.
This acceleration is not merely a numbers game. It leverages Bylaw 58 (2024) standards for efficiency (1.2 DC:AC ratio, 1,800 kWh/kWp/year) to deliver direct economic benefits: reducing grid losses, stabilizing local electricity costs, and creating clean energy jobs aligned with the Economic Modernization Vision.
The Integrated Solution: Synergy Between Grids and Strategy
The path forward requires a synchronized, two-tiered approach:
Transmission Grid as the Bulk Power Engine: Continue rapid deployment of cost-effective, large-scale wind, solar, and storage to decarbonize the base load.
Distribution Grid as the Resilient Growth Platform: Actively approve installation between ~120-180 MW/year solar PV through streamlined regulations, financing mechanisms, and grid modernization to host more distributed resources.
The imminent update to the Jordan Energy Strategy 2020-2030 is therefore more than a routine revision; it is an opportunity to raise ambition. The 31% target is a metric for energy security—displacing imports with local sun and wind—and a proxy for economic modernization, public health, and climate resilience. The question is no longer if Jordan can reach its goal, but how decisively it will empower and invest in upgrading the national grids to get there. The new renewable energy target must be accompanied by a plan and financial mechanism to upgrade the grids.
