The cereal supply chain in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is highly exposed to disruption risks due to vulnerabilities at both production and post-production stages. Inappropriate climate conditions, water scarcity, fragmented farm structure, insufficient access to input, and inappropriate use of arable land are some prominent production-related problems. On the other hand, high harvest-post-harvest losses, lack of storage capacity, heavy dependence on imports, and lack of investment in technology are among post-production vulnerabilities.
The World Bank classifies MENA region as comprising 19 countries, spanning from the Atlantic Ocean (adjacent to Morocco) to the Arabian Sea (adjacent to Oman), with only eight of those, namely Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Tunisia have substantial cereal production. Remaining 11 countries; Bahrain, Djibouti, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, and Yemen have very less or no production. In 2022 total wheat and barley production of the region was 38.5 million tons, whereas total consumption was far higher, with around 90 million tons. The gap between production and total consumption fills in with import, leading the region to be one of the largest wheat-barley importing zone in the world (22% of global total imports) by 49 million tons in 2022 (FAO, 2024 a,b).
Individually assessing the countries in the region, none exhibit self-sufficiency in wheat. Bahrain, Djibouti, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen have ratios below 10%, demonstrating near-total dependence on imports. Conversely, Algeria, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Lebanon, Libya, and Palestine have ratios ranging from 15% to 45%. Lastly, Iran, Iraq, and Egypt possess ratios exceeding 50% (FAO, 2024c). It is crucial to acknowledge that, despite a high self-sufficiency ratio, the majority of cereal imports in the region originate from nations that produce cereal, where 82% of the total population resides.
Source: FAO 2024c
Measures for mitigating risks and improving resilience of cereal supply chain in MENA
Measures for risk mitigation and improvement of resilience in the cereal supply chain differ upon factors of climatic conditions, cereal production capacities, agronomic practices, land structure, storage and transportation infrastructure, gross domestic product, population growth and import dependency ratio. As conditions of 19 MENA countries differ from each other, measures that should be taken are based on specific conditions of each of them.
For instance, building stockpiles is a critical measure that could be preferred by all MENA countries because of their dependence on import. However, the countries that have no production and heavily dependent on import could embrace this policy more, bearing in mind that stockpiling is exposed to the risks of spoilage and so, a good management is essential.
Scientific literature indicates that countries worldwide are actively pursuing free trade agreements (FTAs) to enhance international economic and trade collaboration, since they provide increased flexibility in regulations and facilitate coordination. This sort of regional and/or free trade agreements with cereal exporting countries could be more binding to ensure sustainable flow of cereals by minimizing exposure to the risks of export restrictions at the time of crises (Zeng et al. 2025).
Countries that have moderate cereal production have more options for mitigating risks and improving resilience in supply chain. In addition to the measures mentioned above, those countries could focus on improving productivity of their domestic production which is significantly low in MENA countries. Use of improved varieties, climate-smart agronomic practices, efficient water management, integrated pest and disease management, advanced mechanization and use of up-to-date technology in production do not only increase productivity but also ensure sustainable use of resources and decrease environmental impacts.
MENA region demonstrates substantial harvest and post-harvest losses, with an average of 14% of the total yield from 2000 to 2022 (FAO, 2024d). This figure is substantially higher than the global average of 4%. Minimizing losses along supply chain will reduce import dependency, increase producers’ income and stabilize domestic prices. Timely harvesting, coupled with appropriately calibrated harvesters, enhanced transportation and storage facilities, and an efficient market that considers the interests of producers can increase production by minimizing losses at harvest and post-harvest stages.
Productivity increase and loss reduction measures can succeed when paired with an inclusive extension program, a target-oriented agricultural research initiative, and substantial infrastructural investments which should be funded by the governments since it could be very costly. A top-down strategy that facilitates the engagement of all stakeholders in the value chain should be favored when establishing programs, ensuring that they incorporate diverse perspectives and ultimately encourage stakeholders to embrace measures and policies developed in collaboration.
Acknowledgements
This work is supported by the CERERE project. CERERE (CEreals REsiliency REvolution for agile supply chain management in the Mediterranean) is funded by the PRIMA Programme 2023 – Section 1 – Food Value-chain 2023 – Topic 1.3.1 (RIA) – Increasing resilience of agri-food supply chain (cereal) in the MENA region, Grant Agreement No. 2331 (Deliverable 2.5: Macroeconomic analysis of cereal supply chain in the MENA region and in the Mediterranean area). The views expressed belong to the author(s) alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union or the PRIMA Foundation.
References
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